Categories意见

2021年08月9日

苏莱曼
Rahim & Co研究总监

在应对 2019冠状病毒病疫情对经济与市场造成的破坏性影响时,
政府提供的激励措施与财政援助,
却营造了一种被一些人推测为适合泡沫形成的环境。

彭博社的一篇文章描述了这种情况,其特点是低利率、无与伦比的财政刺激配套,以及市场对经济疫后可如一些国家般强劲复苏的预期。

尽管马来西亚可能正处于疫情爆发以来的最严峻时期,每日确诊数字屡创新高,而且传染性更强的冠病变种病毒令情况进一步恶化;但与此同时,在疫情乱局中悄然酝酿的产业泡沫,对我们国家的威胁更大。但在开始恐慌之前,我们须先自问,根据过去10年的表现和面临的问题,大马产业市场是否真的走向泡沫化。

2010年以来,我们可见到国内产业市场于2011/2012年见顶,接着6年则掉头下行。这股跌势于2018年见底,2019年初见复苏迹象时,许多人寄托2020年即使没有进一步攀升,也至少会维持这股复苏力道。当更切确的数据相继出炉时,市场上有关“屋价将会上涨”、“让我们为下一波产业好景作准备”的声浪此起彼落。

然而,当冠病疫情爆发并迅速席卷全球,各国逐个沦陷,至今仍未见尽头。当市场陷入一场危机 ,有关当前产业市场是否泡沫的恐慌再度浮现,并成为坊间讨论和流传的一个课题。

需求急降库存过剩

众所周知,气泡是一个薄薄的液体球,其中包含大量空气,并在任何接触或足以使它破裂的情况下都很脆弱。

“泡沫”一词也指脱离现实的情况,它在没有任何坚实基础支持的情况下,被人为和投机需求不断吹大,膨胀到超出其承受能力,使“泡沫”面临破裂的高风险。

在产业市场方面,“房屋泡沫”一般是指房屋价格被人为和投机需求迅速推高的一种现象,刺激经济状况进一步助长了激进的消费行为模式和过度扩张的债务收入比。

随着需求表面上的膨胀,它将达到爆发点,飞得如此之高的东西现在只能崩溃。

需求以惊人的速度下降,原本高昂的价格现在作为回应而下降,并且由于新库存已经进入以满足之前膨胀的高需求,库存出现过剩。

当我们把上述导因和因素,用来评估大马产业市场时,可见并非所有因素都印证当前情况。

在需求方面,情况从未回到2011/2012年高峰时期,并开始于2019年才开始有好转迹象。市场交易总值也在2014年后下跌。价格方面,虽然还有增长,但2017至2020年期间增长速度已放缓。

此外,一些领域也可看到巩固现象。然而,整体市场仍描绘一幅价格稳定、购屋者和买家得以获得足够的信贷、低利率和放宽产业盈利税等措施辅助。

滞销房产5年激增3倍

在供应面上,住宅领域已出现供过于求或供需失衡现象,这可从2015年起,滞销房产单位逐年增加的情况看出一般。2015年共有1万2069单位,涉及总值70亿8000万令吉(包括当局归类为商用产业的服务式公寓和SOHO单位)滞销;到了2020年,滞销房产已多达5万5300单位,涉及总值407亿9000万令吉。无论是滞销数量和总值,都是短短5年内激增了超过3倍。

今年首季,滞销单位减少至5万2907单位,涉及总值也减至396亿令吉,情况令人鼓舞。然而,到了今年底,当前仍在肆虐的冠病疫情会否令滞销产业数据重新恶化,目前仍有待时间证明。

纵观上述因素,大马产业市场正在酝酿泡沫了吗?就目前看来,答案是否定的。

市场节奏和情绪更多是在循序渐进和不确定的范围内,而不是冲动的反应和波动的走势。

这当然很大程度上可归功于金融机构,他们对监管和利率保持警惕和谨慎,以提供更永续的步伐,而不是人为的繁荣。

最近的交易活动和价格变动,被更好地描述为适度百分比变化范围内的“巩固”或“调整。

当前宽松的环境和政策迫切所需,以刺激市场走出当前的低迷状态。

低利率重振国内经济

国家银行将隔夜政策利率维持在1.75%的记录新低水平,不仅减轻购屋者的利息负担,也将刺激市场开销及重振国内经济。

拥屋计划(Home Ownership Campaign,简称HOC)祭出降低新房产交易成本的各项措施(虽然我们希望这些措施也涵盖二手房屋),加上豁免产业盈利税直到今年底,旨在刺激产业交易增长。

延缓还贷措施及雇员公积金局的各项提款计划,让国内家庭拥有更好的现金流,尤其是那些每月收入深受疫情影响者。尽管去年为期6个月的延缓还贷措施,令许多资金流入股市,加上部分国人因封国锁城措施所省下的钱(减少出门消费),是大马股市去年涨潮的部分主因,而部分流入产业市场的这类再投资资金,短期内不会造成泡沫。

同时,除了购屋者目前更为谨慎行事,国行也采取了一些监控措施,确保市场的永续发展。

目前,市场上不乏寻求趁低吸购良机的买家,尤其是市场期待我国将达致群体免疫,将有更多经济领域重新开放。

可负担屋较受欢迎

尽管未有迹象显示产业泡沫正悄然酝酿,可让大家松了一口气,但大马产业市场依然受国人普遍负担不起的课题所困,纵使近期推出市场的新楼盘价格,因发展商纷纷提供各种折扣和回扣而有所减低。

基于生活成本依然偏高,就业和收入保障是一大挑战,国人仍普遍寻求价格可负担的房屋,无论是购物者或租户都是如此。

产业滞销的现象与日俱增,而人们经常诠释这是产品与价格供需失衡使然,而这对这类产品的需求产生很大影响。

尽管滞销房产看来是以高档单位为主,但其实也不乏一些价格可负担的房屋。

以去年为例,17%的已竣工未售出房屋售价低于30万令吉,另有19%是售价高过100万令吉的高档房产。中位价格房产方面,29%是售价介于30万零1至60万令吉的单位。

纵观上述,有关滞销数据显示了平衡价格、产品设计、地点,以及买家本身对有关房屋考量和看法的复杂性。

它也彰显了可负担能力的概念不仅仅是获得低价房屋,而是有关价格为买家提供了他们需要和希望的舒适度、设计、便利和位置。

负担能力最初是通过价格的视角来理解的,现在人们则是从生活方式的角度来理解,而不仅是有瓦遮头。

随着疫情的爆发,寻求可负担的房屋目标及如何维持它,已变得更为错综复杂。

尽管当局所营造的宽松环境有利于买家,以刺激市场消费和支出,但它或不会导致其他国家已经发生或正在发生的泡沫。也在大马上演。

现阶段而言,各项奖掖和措施是迫切需要的,以让已放缓的市场重燃回到辉煌时期的希望,并继续我们解决问题的旅程,以实现可负担的最终目标。

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    Users alone are responsible for the contents of the message they communicate when using property.eNanyang.my services and as well as the consequences of any such messages. You agree that you will not use property.eNanyang.my services for chain letters, junk mail, “spamming” or commercial solicitations. You further agree not to use property.eNanyang.my or its Partner’s services to send any message or material that is unlawful, gives rise to civil liability. All chat and bulletin board communications are public and not private communications. Although property.eNanyang.my reserves the right to remove without notice any bulletin board posting for any reason or no reason, property.eNanyang.my do not have any obligation to delete content that you may find objectionable or offensive.

    Unless otherwise indicated, Malaysian copyright law and international treaties protect all editorial content, graphics, video and soundbites on this site. No part or parts hereof may be reproduced, reused, distributed, adapted, modified, republished, displayed, broadcast, framed, copied or transmitted in any manner or by any means or stored in an information retrieval system without the express permission of property.eNanyang.my who reserve all rights. You also may not without our express prior written content, insert a link to this web site on any other web site, frame or “mirror” any material contained on this web site on any other server. Permission to use Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd (eNanyang.my and property.eNanyang.my) proprietary content is only granted on a case-by-case basis. Please direct your enquiries to prop@eNanyang.my. The material from this web site is only available for off line informational and non-commercial uses. For such use the content and/or graphics must not be modified in any way. All copyright and other notices on any copy are retained. You may not copy or adapt the HTML code that property.eNanyang.my create to display pages. This also is covered by Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd copyright. The “look” and “feel” of this web site and its subsites also are trademarks of eNanyang.my. This includes the site colour scheme, button shapes, layout, and all other graphical elements. Any such unauthorised reproduction, retransmission or other copying or modification of any of the contents of property.eNanyang.my web site may be in breach of statutory or common law rights which could be the subject of legal action. property.eNanyang.my disclaims all liability which may arise from any unauthorised reproduction or use of this web site.

    All trademarks, service marks and logos displayed in this web site are the property of property.eNanyang.my and/or their respective third-party proprietors as identified in the web site. Unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant third-party proprietor of any trademarks, service marks or logos appearing on the web site has been obtained, no license or right is granted to any party accessing this web site to use, download, reproduce, copy or modify such trademarks, service marks or logos. Similarly, unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant proprietor has been obtained, no such trade mark, service mark or logo may be used as a link or to mark any link to the property.eNanyang.my web site or any other site. Just as property.eNanyang.my requires users to respect our copyrights, and those of our affiliates and partners, we respect the copyrights of others. If you believe in good faith that your copyrighted work has been reproduced on our site without authorisation in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, you may notify our designated copyright agent either by mail to Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd, No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia or by email to prop@eNanyang.my.

    This site is available “as is” and “as available” basis. We do not warrant that this service will be uninterrupted or error-free. There may be delays, omissions, interruptions and inaccuracies in the news, information or other materials available through this web site. We are not responsible for the availability or content of other services that may be linked to this web site. We do not make any warranties, express or implied, including without limitation, those of merchant quality and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to this web site or any information or services that are available or advertised or sold through this web site. We do not make any representations, nor do we endorse the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other material or database displayed, uploaded or distributed in this web site or available through links in this web site. We reserve the right to correct any errors or omissions in this web site. Although we intend to take reasonable steps to prevent the introduction of viruses, worms, “Trojan horses” or other destructive materials to this web site, we do not guarantee or warrant that the materials that may be downloaded from this web site do not contain such destructive features. We are not liable for any damages or harm attributable to such features. If you rely on this information and any materials available through this web site, you do so solely at your own risk. Without derogation of the above and/or terms and conditions of the applicable agreements governing all the information and services of the web site, reasonable measures shall be taken by property.eNanyang.my to ensure the accuracy and validity of all information relating to transactions of products and services of related web site.

    property.eNanyang.my shall not be liable for any loss or damages howsoever arising whether in contract, tort, negligence, strict liability or any other basis, including without limitation any damages, loss or expense, direct, indirect, special, or consequential damage, punitive damages or economic loss arising from or in connection with: (1) any access, use or the inability to access or use this website, or reliance on the materials and/or any information in this web site; (2) any system, server or connection failure, error, omission, interruption, delay in transmission, or computer virus; and (3) any use of or access to any other sites linked to this web site. Any hyperlinks to any other websites are not an endorsement or verification of such web sites and such web sites should only be accessed at the user’s own risks. This exclusion clause shall take effect to the fullest extent permitted by law.

    Links from or to the web sites outside of property.eNanyang.my are meant for convenience only. This web site does not investigate, verify, monitor, or endorse the content, accuracy, opinions expressed and other links (if any) provided by such resources as such linked web sites are owned and operated by third parties and are not under the control of property.eNanyang.my. Therefore, we shall not be responsible and makes no warranties in respect of the contents of those web sites, the third parties named therein or their products and services. Furthermore, the links provided in this web site to other shall not be considered an endorsement or verification or approval of such linked web sites of the contents therein. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and property.eNanyang.my will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. It is advisable for you to read the privacy policy statements any web sites which are linked to this web site.

    You will on demand indemnify and keep indemnified property.eNanyang.my from all liabilities, claims, losses and expenses, including any legal fees that may be incurred by property.eNanyang.my in connection with or arising from (1) your use or misuse of this web site and the services provided herein, or (2) your breach of these terms and conditions howsoever occasioned, or (3) any intellectual property right or proprietary right infringement claim made by a third party against property.eNanyang.my in connection with your use of this web site.


    property.eNanyang.my reserves the right to terminate and/or suspend your access and/or your use of this web site at any time, for any reason. In particular, and without limitation, we may terminate and/or suspend your access should you violate any of these terms and conditions, or violate the rights of property.eNanyang.my of any other user or any third party.

    The failure of property.eNanyang.my to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these terms and conditions shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any part of these terms and conditions is determined to be invalid or unenforceable pursuant to applicable law, then the invalid and unenforceable provision will be deemed superseded by a valid, enforceable provision that most clearly matches the intent of the original provision and the remainder of the other provisions of the terms and conditions shall continue in full force and effect. All rights not expressly granted herein are reserved.

    These terms and conditions are governed by and are to be construed in accordance with the laws of Malaysia. By accessing this web site and/or using the services provided herein by property.eNanyang.my, you hereby agree to submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Malaysian courts in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of this web site.

    私隐政策声明

      You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

      In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

      • Name;
      • Address;
      • Phone Number;
      • Fax Number;
      • Date of Birth;
      • Email Address;
      • Gender;
      • Bank Information;
      • Identity Card Number; or
      • Credit Card Information

      Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

      • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
      • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
      • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
      • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
      • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
      • to conduct marketing activities;
      • to direct market to you;
      • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
      • to process exchanges or product returns;
      • to process payments to you;
      • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
      • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
      • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
      • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
      • for debt collection purposes;
      • to respond to requests or complaints;
      • for future business opportunities and transactions;
      • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
      • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
      • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
      collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

      Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

      1. law enforcement agencies;
      2. government agencies;
      3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
      4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
      5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
      6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
      7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
      8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

      You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

      Designation: Data Privacy Officer
      Telephone: 03-7872 6921
      Fax: 03-7872 6994
      Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
      Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

      We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

      This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

      © 南洋商报有限公司版权所有 | Copyright Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn. Bhd.(6164-V)

      电邮:prop@eNanyang.my

      地址: No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

      电话: +603-7872 6888

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        私隐政策声明

          You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

          In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

          • Name;
          • Address;
          • Phone Number;
          • Fax Number;
          • Date of Birth;
          • Email Address;
          • Gender;
          • Bank Information;
          • Identity Card Number; or
          • Credit Card Information

          Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

          • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
          • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
          • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
          • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
          • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
          • to conduct marketing activities;
          • to direct market to you;
          • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
          • to process exchanges or product returns;
          • to process payments to you;
          • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
          • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
          • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
          • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
          • for debt collection purposes;
          • to respond to requests or complaints;
          • for future business opportunities and transactions;
          • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
          • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
          • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
          collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

          Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

          1. law enforcement agencies;
          2. government agencies;
          3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
          4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
          5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
          6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
          7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
          8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

          You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

          Designation: Data Privacy Officer
          Telephone: 03-7872 6921
          Fax: 03-7872 6994
          Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
          Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

          We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

          This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

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