Categories趋势

2021年03月24日

独家报道:伍咏敏

2019冠状病毒病疫情大爆发以来,“stay at home(待在家里)”或许是最安全之策;家算是最安全的地方,所以过去的一年,大家待在家的时间肯定是破了纪录。

那么长时间待在家,那些身为租户的消费者,现在会不会更想要拥有自己的屋子,更有购屋欲望?已置业的国人,又会否觉得现有屋子的空间不够大,想要“升级”以拥有更大间的房子?

到底冠病如何影响房产市场,尤其是住宅产业的前景又会是如何?

作为经济领域一部分的房产市场,在整体经济受到冲击的情况下,肯定也无法逃过一劫。

去年3至4月政府实行行动管控令(MCO)期间,经济几乎完全停摆,产业专家指出,产业市场确实是受到了冲击。

他们认为,基于产业市场走势落在经济变化后头的本质,产业市场可能要到今年下半年才看到复苏。

威廉氏达哈与王有限公司(CBRE|WTW)集团董事经理符儒仁接受《南洋商报》专访时指出,产业市场仍疲弱,各个产业次领域,复苏之路不平坦。

“当然,政府积极振兴经济,以及一致要避免完全封锁经济的观点,市场还是会有一些乐观因素。因此,经济复苏的速度有赖于控制疫情的能力,尤其疫苗面市也带来一线曙光。”

说到冠病对产业市场的冲击,马来西亚房地产中介协会(MIEA)主席林文彬显得比较乐观。

他接受访问时引述国家产业资讯中心(NAPIC)的数据指出,我国产业市场去年4月跌到谷底,

MCO 1.0 结束及经济重启后,市场呈现了“V型”的恢复趋势。

另外,大马莱坊董事经理沙古南在1月的文告指出,MCO后,产业市场展现出一些复苏迹象,一些发展商还看到了订单改善,主要是低利率和之前被压抑的需求,所带来的激励。

复苏有赖经济走势

去年6月,拥屋计划2.0 (HOC 2.0)的推行,加上政府为人民和经济纾困而祭出的数个刺激经济配套,也都为住宅产业市场带来一线曙光。

但到了去年末季,冠病病例暴增,政府今年1月13日再祭出MCO 2.0后,短期内市场复苏很大可能会脱轨。

因此,他指出,接下来,住宅产业市场复苏有赖于经济走势。即将开始的疫苗注射计划,肯定会为国家经济复苏带来希望,并提振整体消费者情绪。

无论如何,政治持续动荡,加上疫情恶化,也导致购屋者,甚至是发展商也重新检讨未来计划和策略。

整体来看,住宅产业市场今年上半年内仍有挑战。

另外,大马房地产发展商会(REHDA)会长拿督孙兴存也指出,只要不再实行全面停摆的MCO,大马房地产发展商会对于今年和明年的产业市场前景谨慎乐观。

MCO期间成交量值齐跌

回顾2020年,符儒仁指出,产业市场的走势自冠病以来,至今仍大致向下。

他说,尤其去年3月,政府第一次实行MCO,经济和房产市场完全暂停了。接着从落实复苏行动管控令(RMCO)到有条件管控令(CMCO)的阶段,经济活动的复苏缓和,因此为了仔细考虑疫情的冲击及2021年的部署策略,许多商业计划都重新评估和规划。

“整体来看,2020年产业市场被放弃了。因为MCO期间,成交量和值大跌,虽然下半年复苏,但不足以完全收复失地。”

林文彬也说:“根据截至去年6月的数据,无论是总成交量或值,大马产业市场几乎恢复到MCO前水平。图表显示,市场从3月重挫,直接在4月达谷底,原因无非就是全国处于封锁状态,律师楼和土地局没有如常营运,任何产业交易都无法进行。当时唯一能够做的,大概只是收订金。”

市场呈“V型”复苏

他补充,去年上半年,比较2019和2018同期,无论总成交量或值都下跌近30%,这个跌幅算是合理,因为MCO期间,市场出现长达2个多月或占了上半年30%时间的交易真空期。

他说,随着MCO 1.0成功压平疫情曲线,MCO结束后,商业活动和政府部门都恢复上班,律师楼和土地局也重新营运,产业经纪可以活动,交易开始恢复。接着,市场就呈现“V型”的复苏。

去年第三季的成交量特别活跃,达8万9245宗,按年增长7.4%,甚至超越过去4年同期的表现。原因可能是因为MCO期间无法成交的活动,累积到第三季。

惟第三季整体成交值按年比较,稍微萎缩了2.4%,仅录得337.8亿令吉。

HOC延续刺激产业市场

说到住宅产业领域,孙兴存接受访问时指出,政府的振兴措施比如HOC,料帮助许多大马人在这个艰难的时刻购屋。

该商会一项针对疫情对产业市场冲击的调查也显示,大部分受访者认同,HOC延续已经且会进一步激励市场。

符儒仁指出,HOC以及其他的购屋优惠会提振市场。

但是失业和失去收入的担忧,还是会冲击大型消费比如住宅房屋的信心。

基于市场疲弱,加上滞销,新推介的活动和新供应预计会在未来几年内缓和下来,住宅市场将是买家的市场。

尽管如此,价位合理的优质项目,还是会在目前面临各种挑战之际取得好的表现,而需求来自于拥有强劲财务基础的升级购屋者或者是投资者。

基本上,本地需求是房产市场包括商务产业领域的即时支撑。

房价萎缩幅度不大

既然专家看淡房市前景,房价会跌吗?

林文彬解释,大马屋价指数(MHPI)统计,截至2020年次季,全马的房屋平均价格水平是在42万7882令吉,比起2010年比较基础年的20万9763令吉,扬升了98.3%或将近一倍。

“从数据上,过去10年,房价基本上持续上扬,惟有到了2020年次季,房屋价格才第一次出现了按季下跌,也就是价格萎缩。”

他说,房价的涨势从2010年上涨到2012的顶峰后,因为国家银行收紧放贷政策,银行改为以贷款借贷者的净收入来计算,而不是以总收入来计算可负担的贷款比率,之后房价的增长势头就放缓。

“房价持续增长,只是增长势头放缓,直到去年第二季萎缩0.7%。严格来说,屋价在去年疫情期间,上半年内只是萎缩不超过1%,幅度不大。而且按年比较仍增0.4%。”

林文彬预测,屋价未来的趋势还是往下走,但幅度不会很大。“大家可能会觉得房产市场的表现很差,但很多时候,感觉大于数据。实际数据显示,情况并不是我们想象那么糟糕。”

发展商优惠 豁免印花税
疫期有利购屋

那么,现在到底是不是购屋者买房的好时机?

林文彬说,为了清货,发展商目前确给出许多优惠,而且都是货真价实的折扣或者回扣,而非纯为行销手法。

加上政府豁免印花税,购屋者能节省好几万令吉,真的很值得。

符儒仁的意见相似,他还说,除了折扣和回扣,发展商现在更愿意给出家具、豁免维修费和免费停车位等优惠。

“事实上,疫情期间,发展商一直都积极推出有创意的活动来为市场保温。他们现在更愿与购屋者分担风险,给予更弹性的购屋配套。”

孙兴存指出,除了发展商提供的各种优惠,政府所采取的一系列措施和现有低利率环境,都是购屋的好时机。

购屋是一种长期承诺,3位专家都提醒,潜在购屋者须清楚的了解即将背负的财务负担和必须满足所需要的条件。购屋前确保自己有负担能力,关键还是贷款能力。

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    Although this site may contain or provide access or links to information, opinions or recommendations on products and services of property.eNanyang.my or other parties, does not represent that such products or services, opinions or recommendation are suitable for you. All transactions are done at your sole risk and responsibility and in reliance only upon your own judgment and you will make your own independent evaluation of the suitability of the recommendations, products and services obtained, offered or accessed through this web site. Further you should seek professional advice at all times and obtain independent verification of the materials and information provided herein prior to making any investment, business or commercial decision based on any such materials or information. This site shall have no responsibility or liability to you in respect of any opinions or recommendations expressed by it or any other parties on this site. None of this information, opinions or recommendations contained in this site constitutes solicitations or offers by property.eNanyang.my to sell/buy any products or services, provide any investments or financial advice or an invitation to enter into any legally binding contract or arrangement with you. Your eligibility for any particular products or services is subject to the final determination and acceptance by the Companies.

    Users alone are responsible for the contents of the message they communicate when using property.eNanyang.my services and as well as the consequences of any such messages. You agree that you will not use property.eNanyang.my services for chain letters, junk mail, “spamming” or commercial solicitations. You further agree not to use property.eNanyang.my or its Partner’s services to send any message or material that is unlawful, gives rise to civil liability. All chat and bulletin board communications are public and not private communications. Although property.eNanyang.my reserves the right to remove without notice any bulletin board posting for any reason or no reason, property.eNanyang.my do not have any obligation to delete content that you may find objectionable or offensive.

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    All trademarks, service marks and logos displayed in this web site are the property of property.eNanyang.my and/or their respective third-party proprietors as identified in the web site. Unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant third-party proprietor of any trademarks, service marks or logos appearing on the web site has been obtained, no license or right is granted to any party accessing this web site to use, download, reproduce, copy or modify such trademarks, service marks or logos. Similarly, unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant proprietor has been obtained, no such trade mark, service mark or logo may be used as a link or to mark any link to the property.eNanyang.my web site or any other site. Just as property.eNanyang.my requires users to respect our copyrights, and those of our affiliates and partners, we respect the copyrights of others. If you believe in good faith that your copyrighted work has been reproduced on our site without authorisation in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, you may notify our designated copyright agent either by mail to Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd, No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia or by email to prop@eNanyang.my.

    This site is available “as is” and “as available” basis. We do not warrant that this service will be uninterrupted or error-free. There may be delays, omissions, interruptions and inaccuracies in the news, information or other materials available through this web site. We are not responsible for the availability or content of other services that may be linked to this web site. We do not make any warranties, express or implied, including without limitation, those of merchant quality and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to this web site or any information or services that are available or advertised or sold through this web site. We do not make any representations, nor do we endorse the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other material or database displayed, uploaded or distributed in this web site or available through links in this web site. We reserve the right to correct any errors or omissions in this web site. Although we intend to take reasonable steps to prevent the introduction of viruses, worms, “Trojan horses” or other destructive materials to this web site, we do not guarantee or warrant that the materials that may be downloaded from this web site do not contain such destructive features. We are not liable for any damages or harm attributable to such features. If you rely on this information and any materials available through this web site, you do so solely at your own risk. Without derogation of the above and/or terms and conditions of the applicable agreements governing all the information and services of the web site, reasonable measures shall be taken by property.eNanyang.my to ensure the accuracy and validity of all information relating to transactions of products and services of related web site.

    property.eNanyang.my shall not be liable for any loss or damages howsoever arising whether in contract, tort, negligence, strict liability or any other basis, including without limitation any damages, loss or expense, direct, indirect, special, or consequential damage, punitive damages or economic loss arising from or in connection with: (1) any access, use or the inability to access or use this website, or reliance on the materials and/or any information in this web site; (2) any system, server or connection failure, error, omission, interruption, delay in transmission, or computer virus; and (3) any use of or access to any other sites linked to this web site. Any hyperlinks to any other websites are not an endorsement or verification of such web sites and such web sites should only be accessed at the user’s own risks. This exclusion clause shall take effect to the fullest extent permitted by law.

    Links from or to the web sites outside of property.eNanyang.my are meant for convenience only. This web site does not investigate, verify, monitor, or endorse the content, accuracy, opinions expressed and other links (if any) provided by such resources as such linked web sites are owned and operated by third parties and are not under the control of property.eNanyang.my. Therefore, we shall not be responsible and makes no warranties in respect of the contents of those web sites, the third parties named therein or their products and services. Furthermore, the links provided in this web site to other shall not be considered an endorsement or verification or approval of such linked web sites of the contents therein. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and property.eNanyang.my will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. It is advisable for you to read the privacy policy statements any web sites which are linked to this web site.

    You will on demand indemnify and keep indemnified property.eNanyang.my from all liabilities, claims, losses and expenses, including any legal fees that may be incurred by property.eNanyang.my in connection with or arising from (1) your use or misuse of this web site and the services provided herein, or (2) your breach of these terms and conditions howsoever occasioned, or (3) any intellectual property right or proprietary right infringement claim made by a third party against property.eNanyang.my in connection with your use of this web site.


    property.eNanyang.my reserves the right to terminate and/or suspend your access and/or your use of this web site at any time, for any reason. In particular, and without limitation, we may terminate and/or suspend your access should you violate any of these terms and conditions, or violate the rights of property.eNanyang.my of any other user or any third party.

    The failure of property.eNanyang.my to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these terms and conditions shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any part of these terms and conditions is determined to be invalid or unenforceable pursuant to applicable law, then the invalid and unenforceable provision will be deemed superseded by a valid, enforceable provision that most clearly matches the intent of the original provision and the remainder of the other provisions of the terms and conditions shall continue in full force and effect. All rights not expressly granted herein are reserved.

    These terms and conditions are governed by and are to be construed in accordance with the laws of Malaysia. By accessing this web site and/or using the services provided herein by property.eNanyang.my, you hereby agree to submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Malaysian courts in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of this web site.

    私隐政策声明

      You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

      In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

      • Name;
      • Address;
      • Phone Number;
      • Fax Number;
      • Date of Birth;
      • Email Address;
      • Gender;
      • Bank Information;
      • Identity Card Number; or
      • Credit Card Information

      Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

      • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
      • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
      • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
      • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
      • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
      • to conduct marketing activities;
      • to direct market to you;
      • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
      • to process exchanges or product returns;
      • to process payments to you;
      • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
      • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
      • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
      • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
      • for debt collection purposes;
      • to respond to requests or complaints;
      • for future business opportunities and transactions;
      • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
      • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
      • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
      collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

      Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

      1. law enforcement agencies;
      2. government agencies;
      3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
      4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
      5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
      6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
      7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
      8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

      You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

      Designation: Data Privacy Officer
      Telephone: 03-7872 6921
      Fax: 03-7872 6994
      Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
      Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

      We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

      This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

      © 南洋商报有限公司版权所有 | Copyright Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn. Bhd.(6164-V)

      电邮:prop@eNanyang.my

      地址: No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

      电话: +603-7872 6888

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        The following terms and conditions apply to your access and the use of this Web Site and the Services provided herein by Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd. (hereinafter referred to as “eNanyang.my” and “property.eNanyang.my”). By accessing any page of this Web Site and/or using the services, you agree to be bound by these terms and conditions without limitation or qualification. If you do not accept these terms and conditions, please immediately discontinue access to this Web Site and/or use of the services.

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        私隐政策声明

          You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

          In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

          • Name;
          • Address;
          • Phone Number;
          • Fax Number;
          • Date of Birth;
          • Email Address;
          • Gender;
          • Bank Information;
          • Identity Card Number; or
          • Credit Card Information

          Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

          • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
          • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
          • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
          • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
          • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
          • to conduct marketing activities;
          • to direct market to you;
          • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
          • to process exchanges or product returns;
          • to process payments to you;
          • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
          • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
          • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
          • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
          • for debt collection purposes;
          • to respond to requests or complaints;
          • for future business opportunities and transactions;
          • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
          • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
          • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
          collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

          Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

          1. law enforcement agencies;
          2. government agencies;
          3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
          4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
          5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
          6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
          7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
          8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

          You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

          Designation: Data Privacy Officer
          Telephone: 03-7872 6921
          Fax: 03-7872 6994
          Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
          Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

          We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

          This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

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