Categories趋势

中国父母 得尽快为孩子买房?

2022年05月17日

中国房产当前需求旺盛,
但几十年后可能就不及日本。

在中国,做父母挺累的。

因为大家的传统思维,一定要有栋房子,所以孩子刚出生的时候,全家上上下下都开始烦恼要为这孩子的未来而买一间房子。

但是,上海金融与法律研究院研究员刘远举在澎拜新闻撰写的文章中就点出,可能中国父母们不需那么紧张,因为中国未来的房产需求,可能还比少子化的日本还要低。

“30年前的中国人,绝对不会想到房子可以买卖,也想不到房子价格会那么高,这就如现在的中国人恐怕也想象不到30年后的房子,价格会多么的低。”

他在文中引用了中国第七次人口普查的数据,2020年时,中国育龄妇女总和生育率为1.3,低于1.5的警戒线。

目前,全球平均生育率为2.41,高收入国家平均为1.60,中等偏低收入国家为1.90,面对“高龄少子化“的日本也有1.35,中国明显处于非常低的情况。

房子,是家庭的最大资产

除了以前的一胎政策,刘远举认为,造成生育率偏低的其中一个重要原因是:养一个小孩太累了。

衣食住行、学费、课外培训、兴趣班,父母一般还要支持到结婚买房,这笔“买房资金“通常是几十万,甚至是几百万,成了养育孩子最大的负担。

发银行联合西南财经大学发表《2018中国城市家庭财富健康报告》显示,中国人房子占家庭资产的比例高达77.7%,美国仅有34.6%。

“想到自己还完房贷,还有继续为儿女买房存钱,这必然会抑制很多人再生一个的愿望。其实,这种担忧过虑了,未来房子绝对不会这么贵。”

日本和中国的相似之处

刘远举指出,中国和日本的人口趋势其实有相似之处。日本六大都市的土地价格从70年开始直到90年代,烦了5倍。在1985至1991年期间,日本房地产在6年间狂飙1.7倍,是最后的疯狂期,非常像今天的中国。

不过在1992年时,泡沫就破裂了,六大都市和全国楼市同时陷入跌势,跌去60%左右。如今虽然已有回升,但离当年的价格还远。

他指出,如今日本年轻人买房很容易。

日本不缺供应、容易贷款

从收入来看,根据日本国家税务局的调查统计,过去10年日本人的平均工资大致在400万至440万日元(约14万至15万令吉)。而这个金额的10倍,也就是4000万日元(约4000万令吉),是可以在离东京都通勤时间一小时的地方买一套典型的、中档的供全家居住的装修好的房子。

除了相对工资价格低之外,日本年轻人买房融资也容易,成本低。一个有稳定工作的日本人,申请零首付买房也不是完全不可能的,就算零首付有难度,10%首付是非常容易的。而利息还不到1%(变动金利)。

老龄化导致需求大减

为什么会出现这个情况?还是因为人口趋势。

2017年,日本65岁以上老年人的达到了3557万,占总人口28.1%,创下历史新高。随着日本年轻一代人口的相对减少,以及年轻夫妇结婚率的不断下降,日本房地产市场羸弱,净需求下降。

2018年10月,日本全国共有住宅5759万套,但家庭总数只有4997万户。所以,在日本,几乎没有人认为房价会大幅上涨。

实际上,这个趋势在中国已经出现了,一些人口流出城市的房价已经涨不动了,更低线的城市或县城,房价已经开始降了。

截至2017年底,中国60岁及以上老年人口有2.41亿人,占总人口17.3%;预计到2050年前后,中国老年人口数将达到峰值4.87亿,占总人口的34.9%。也就是说,2050年的中国,房产的需求可能比日本更低。

Categories趋势

多贫穷住组屋 人口老化加速

2022年02月17日

预计到2030年时,
我国10.3%人是65岁及以上。

老龄化是全球各地正面对的一项难题,在马来西亚也不例外。

根据《2020年人口普查报告》,在2010年时,我国平均每个家庭会有4.3个人,但在10年后已经减少至3.8人。

首相依斯迈沙比里(左)公布2020年大马人口普查报告,右二为慕斯达法。

其中,吉隆坡、布城和槟城,平均一个家庭只有3.5人;反而是吉兰丹和沙巴的家庭规模扩大,分别平均增值4.9人和4.7人。

还有,在我国3240 万的人口中,年轻人口从2010年的27.6%,跌至2020年的24%。

反而是大马65岁及以上长者人口,从2010年的140万,增至2020年的220万人,占3240万总人口的6.8%。

预计这个数目在2030年还会扩大至410万人,或相等于10.3%,这意味着大马即将成为老人国。

首相署(经济)部长拿督斯里慕斯达法解释,城市地区人口老化,大多数人住在组屋或高楼住宅,居住空间有限,且经济无法负担,自然无法不断生育。

虽然吉兰丹人也面临贫穷挑战,但他们的住宅面积更宽阔,所以有能力养育更多孩子。

慕斯达法是在出席2020年人口普查报告推介礼后在记者会上发表谈话,出席者还包括首相拿督斯里依斯迈沙比里、大马统计局首席统计师拿督斯里莫哈末乌兹尔博士等。

政府会依据这份报告来制定政策,做好准备应对人口老化在未来引致的挑战。

“老龄化是全球面对的问题,这将对医疗卫生、教育和房屋的投资带来影响。“

槟隆柔最多华裔

根据报告,华人人口在3个州属/直辖区中的比例最高,分别是槟城 (44.9%)、吉隆坡(41.6%)和柔佛(32.8%)。

而最多土著居住的地方分别为布城 (97.9%)、登嘉楼(97.6%)和吉兰丹(96.6%)。

土著包括马来人、原住民、沙巴土著和砂拉越土著。

印裔人口在3个州属较多,分别是森美兰(14.3%)、霹雳(11.5%)和雪兰莪(11.3%)。

若按种族统计,土著人口比例最高,为 69.4%(约2060万人),其次是华裔23.2%(约690万人)、印裔6.7%(约200万人)和其他种族0.7%(约21万5600人)。

华裔人口比率,相比2010年的24.5%,2020年则为23.2%,下降1.3%。

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    All trademarks, service marks and logos displayed in this web site are the property of property.eNanyang.my and/or their respective third-party proprietors as identified in the web site. Unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant third-party proprietor of any trademarks, service marks or logos appearing on the web site has been obtained, no license or right is granted to any party accessing this web site to use, download, reproduce, copy or modify such trademarks, service marks or logos. Similarly, unless the prior written consent of property.eNanyang.my or the relevant proprietor has been obtained, no such trade mark, service mark or logo may be used as a link or to mark any link to the property.eNanyang.my web site or any other site. Just as property.eNanyang.my requires users to respect our copyrights, and those of our affiliates and partners, we respect the copyrights of others. If you believe in good faith that your copyrighted work has been reproduced on our site without authorisation in a way that constitutes copyright infringement, you may notify our designated copyright agent either by mail to Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd, No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia or by email to prop@eNanyang.my.

    This site is available “as is” and “as available” basis. We do not warrant that this service will be uninterrupted or error-free. There may be delays, omissions, interruptions and inaccuracies in the news, information or other materials available through this web site. We are not responsible for the availability or content of other services that may be linked to this web site. We do not make any warranties, express or implied, including without limitation, those of merchant quality and fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to this web site or any information or services that are available or advertised or sold through this web site. We do not make any representations, nor do we endorse the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or reliability of any advice, opinion, statement or other material or database displayed, uploaded or distributed in this web site or available through links in this web site. We reserve the right to correct any errors or omissions in this web site. Although we intend to take reasonable steps to prevent the introduction of viruses, worms, “Trojan horses” or other destructive materials to this web site, we do not guarantee or warrant that the materials that may be downloaded from this web site do not contain such destructive features. We are not liable for any damages or harm attributable to such features. If you rely on this information and any materials available through this web site, you do so solely at your own risk. Without derogation of the above and/or terms and conditions of the applicable agreements governing all the information and services of the web site, reasonable measures shall be taken by property.eNanyang.my to ensure the accuracy and validity of all information relating to transactions of products and services of related web site.

    property.eNanyang.my shall not be liable for any loss or damages howsoever arising whether in contract, tort, negligence, strict liability or any other basis, including without limitation any damages, loss or expense, direct, indirect, special, or consequential damage, punitive damages or economic loss arising from or in connection with: (1) any access, use or the inability to access or use this website, or reliance on the materials and/or any information in this web site; (2) any system, server or connection failure, error, omission, interruption, delay in transmission, or computer virus; and (3) any use of or access to any other sites linked to this web site. Any hyperlinks to any other websites are not an endorsement or verification of such web sites and such web sites should only be accessed at the user’s own risks. This exclusion clause shall take effect to the fullest extent permitted by law.

    Links from or to the web sites outside of property.eNanyang.my are meant for convenience only. This web site does not investigate, verify, monitor, or endorse the content, accuracy, opinions expressed and other links (if any) provided by such resources as such linked web sites are owned and operated by third parties and are not under the control of property.eNanyang.my. Therefore, we shall not be responsible and makes no warranties in respect of the contents of those web sites, the third parties named therein or their products and services. Furthermore, the links provided in this web site to other shall not be considered an endorsement or verification or approval of such linked web sites of the contents therein. Linking to any other site is at your sole risk and property.eNanyang.my will not be responsible or liable for any damages in connection with linking. It is advisable for you to read the privacy policy statements any web sites which are linked to this web site.

    You will on demand indemnify and keep indemnified property.eNanyang.my from all liabilities, claims, losses and expenses, including any legal fees that may be incurred by property.eNanyang.my in connection with or arising from (1) your use or misuse of this web site and the services provided herein, or (2) your breach of these terms and conditions howsoever occasioned, or (3) any intellectual property right or proprietary right infringement claim made by a third party against property.eNanyang.my in connection with your use of this web site.


    property.eNanyang.my reserves the right to terminate and/or suspend your access and/or your use of this web site at any time, for any reason. In particular, and without limitation, we may terminate and/or suspend your access should you violate any of these terms and conditions, or violate the rights of property.eNanyang.my of any other user or any third party.

    The failure of property.eNanyang.my to exercise or enforce any right or provision of these terms and conditions shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any part of these terms and conditions is determined to be invalid or unenforceable pursuant to applicable law, then the invalid and unenforceable provision will be deemed superseded by a valid, enforceable provision that most clearly matches the intent of the original provision and the remainder of the other provisions of the terms and conditions shall continue in full force and effect. All rights not expressly granted herein are reserved.

    These terms and conditions are governed by and are to be construed in accordance with the laws of Malaysia. By accessing this web site and/or using the services provided herein by property.eNanyang.my, you hereby agree to submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Malaysian courts in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in all disputes arising out of or relating to the use of this web site.

    私隐政策声明

      You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

      In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

      • Name;
      • Address;
      • Phone Number;
      • Fax Number;
      • Date of Birth;
      • Email Address;
      • Gender;
      • Bank Information;
      • Identity Card Number; or
      • Credit Card Information

      Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

      • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
      • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
      • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
      • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
      • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
      • to conduct marketing activities;
      • to direct market to you;
      • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
      • to process exchanges or product returns;
      • to process payments to you;
      • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
      • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
      • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
      • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
      • for debt collection purposes;
      • to respond to requests or complaints;
      • for future business opportunities and transactions;
      • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
      • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
      • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
      collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

      Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

      1. law enforcement agencies;
      2. government agencies;
      3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
      4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
      5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
      6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
      7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
      8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

      You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

      Designation: Data Privacy Officer
      Telephone: 03-7872 6921
      Fax: 03-7872 6994
      Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
      Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

      We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

      This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

      © 南洋商报有限公司版权所有 | Copyright Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn. Bhd.(6164-V)

      电邮:prop@eNanyang.my

      地址: No. 1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

      电话: +603-7872 6888

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        The following terms and conditions apply to your access and the use of this Web Site and the Services provided herein by Nanyang Siang Pau Sdn Bhd. (hereinafter referred to as “eNanyang.my” and “property.eNanyang.my”). By accessing any page of this Web Site and/or using the services, you agree to be bound by these terms and conditions without limitation or qualification. If you do not accept these terms and conditions, please immediately discontinue access to this Web Site and/or use of the services.

        The information, products and services described or offered on this web site are not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject eNanyang.my or its subsidiaries or affiliates to any registration requirements within such jurisdiction or country. The materials, information (including opinions, commentary and recommendations) and functions provided in this web site shall not under any circumstances be considered or construed as an offer or solicitation to sell, buy, give, take, issue, allot or transfer, or as giving of any advice in respect of shares, stocks, bonds, notes, interests, unit trusts, mutual funds or other securities, investments, loans, advances, credits or deposits in any jurisdiction.

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        私隐政策声明

          You agree that Nanyang Press Holdings Berhad and its subsidiaries (“Nanyang Group”) may process, use, disclose and/or retain your personal information in accordance with our Privacy Policy as long as necessary for the fulfillment of the Purposes stated herein.

          In order for us to provide our products and/or services to you in the most efficient and effective manner, we need to collect relevant personal information from you. The personal information collected by us may include, but not limited to, the followings: –

          • Name;
          • Address;
          • Phone Number;
          • Fax Number;
          • Date of Birth;
          • Email Address;
          • Gender;
          • Bank Information;
          • Identity Card Number; or
          • Credit Card Information

          Personal Information that you provide to us will be Processed (as defined in PDPA 2010) for the following purposes: –

          • to process your application and/or request for our products and/or services;
          • to complete transactions with you, manage and verify your membership of our customer loyalty scheme where applicable;
          • to provide you with the products and/or services you have requested or subscribed;
          • to understand and analyse our sales, your needs and preferences;
          • to develop, enhance, market and provide products and services to meet your needs;
          • to conduct marketing activities;
          • to direct market to you;
          • to determine how we can improve our services to you;
          • to process exchanges or product returns;
          • to process payments to you;
          • to enable you to participate in promotions and contests;
          • to investigate and resolve any service issues;
          • to keep in contact with you and better manage any business relationship we have with you;
          • to send you updates on our products, news and events, promotions and rewards, special privileges and initiatives of Nanyang Group, our partners and advertisers;
          • for debt collection purposes;
          • to respond to requests or complaints;
          • for future business opportunities and transactions;
          • for audit, compliance and risk management purposes;
          • to meet legal and regulatory requirements; or
          • for all other purposes incidental and associated with any of the above;
          collectively known as the “Purposes”.<

          Nanyang Group will treat all information we hold about you as private and confidential. In order to provide our products and/or services to you, we may need to disclose your personal information to the following third parties: –

          1. law enforcement agencies;
          2. government agencies;
          3. companies or individuals that act as our agents, contractors, service providers and/or professional advisers;
          4. any financial institution and charge or credit card issuing companies with which you have or propose to have dealings;
          5. our business associates in or outside Malaysia;
          6. to share the information with trusted business partners for the provision of their services
          7. any parties to whom you have given us your express or implied consent to disclose; or
          8. to such other parties as may be permitted under the laws of Malaysia.

          You may contact us at the following contact points should you have any queries regarding this Privacy Policy or you wish to have inaccurate information of you to be corrected: –

          Designation: Data Privacy Officer
          Telephone: 03-7872 6921
          Fax: 03-7872 6994
          Email: pdpa@nanyang.com.my
          Address :1, Jalan SS 7/2, 47301 Petaling Jaya, Selangor

          We will keep this Privacy Policy under regular review and we may amend this Privacy Policy from time to time without prior notice. The updated version shall apply and supersede all previous versions. It is advisable that you check this Privacy Policy on a regular basis.

          This notice was updated: 5th February 2014

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